Tropical Storm Sarika Unlikely to Join Songda in Lashing Japan as a Typhoon

Iwo Jima (HDW) September 6, 2004 - TROPICAL STORM SARIKA, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061130Z1
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS.
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TROPICAL STORM SARIKA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
A NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TROPICAL STORM SARIKA WILL RECURVE
INTO A POLEWARD TRACK AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF JAPAN. THE INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM SARIKA WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS DECREASE IS DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IN RESPONSE TO THE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED
TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM INTENSIFYING.
THE INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM SARIKA IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
DECREASE AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ACCELERATING ALONG A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE.