Hurricane Frances May Possibly Hit Florida Keys within 5 Days According to NOAA

Miami (HDW) August 29, 2004 - The National Hurricane Center of NOAA is tracking Hurricane Frances and its models are showing that Frances’ north westerly direction and speed may place it in the higher latitudes of the Florida Keys within 5 days. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST REACHED THE EYE OF FRANCES AND MEASURED

A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 949 MB IN A 12 NMI EYE WITH FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 112 KNOTS. A DROP MEASURED 127 KNOTS AT THE 913 MB LEVEL
BUT THIS NUMBER IS NOT VERY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SURFACE WINDS.
SINCE THE PLANE HAS NOT SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION...IT IS
ASSUMED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 115 KNOTS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE BIT LOWER. ON SATELLITE...THE CLOUD
PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE BUT WITH A LESS DISTINCT EYE.
FRANCES COULD EITHER INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT MORE...BUT MOST LIKELY
...THE HURRICANE WILL EXPERIENCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY.
NEVERTHERLESS..IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN INTENSE HURRICANE.

FRANCES HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES
AT 8 KNOTS. AS FORECAST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BEEN BUILDING
AND EXPANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THIS RIDGE WILL FORCE
THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
THROUGH 5 DAYS. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE TRACK A
LITTLE MORE THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THAT
INCLUDES BOTH THE GFS AND THE UK MODELS WHICH PREVIOUSLY BROUGH THE
HURRICANE TO NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTH FLORIDA. THESE MODELS
ARE STILL BRINGING THE HURRICANE VERY CLOSE TO FLORIDA BUT AT A
HIGHER LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NEXT GLOBAL MODEL
RUNS WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DATA GATHER FROM THE GPS DROPSONDES TO
BE LAUNCH FROM THE NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET. WE WILL CAREFULLY
MONITOR THE IMPACT ON THESE NEW OBSERVATIONS IN TONIGHT'S RUNS.